Is the Phila. Department of Public Health Making it up as they Go?

The Philadelphia Department of Public Health held a press conference on Wednesday this week to announce that they were lifting the vaccine mandate on restaurants and all indoor venues that serve food.  The mandate, which was announced by the PDPH on Dec. 13th and instituted on Jan. 3rd, threw another wrench into the works for restauranteurs and instituted a 2nd class social status for at least a third of the city’s population.

With the Omicron surge now over the City’s health department released a new gauge of metrics they say will be guiding their future directives on vaccination mandates and masking for restaurants and other indoor venues.  Most interest from the press was drawn to how  the PDPH will declare an All Clear level.

The real problem here for the public is the quality and reliability of the data the PDPH will be using to make these threat decisions. The  State’s spokesperson for the Department of Public Health, Mark O’Neill, says much of the data can be “misleading” as there is no systematic way counties in the state are recording data about Covid19’s impact.

We must remind ourselves that “Cases” just means a positive test and is not a clinical diagnosis of illness.  Most people taking Covid19 test are not symptomatic.  The tests are not considered reliable diagnosis and have extremely high false positive rates.

A percent positivity rate has no epidemiological value as the Omicron surge proved.   At the surges peak more than a third of people taking these tests were coming up positive flooding ERs with panicked short of breath anxiety cases.

The Covid19 hospitalization rate is also meaningless.  The PDPH does not separate its case positivity data from hospitals to show what level of incidental covid19 cases are being recorded.

Hospitals test every admission as they are compensated handsomely through the PREP Act.  Incidental Covid19 hospitalizations are those who were admitted for other reasons like a broken ankle or heart attack but test positive on admission or during their stay.  Bettigole suggested in the press conference the way they calculate hospitalizations may change in the future.

Let’s examine the All Clear lowest threat level on their gauge which the City says will look like normal with no mask requirement (except in schools, healthcare institutions, congregate settings, and on public transportation).  Please note that these new metrics do not allow the unmasking of students, for public transit and inside health care or any education facility.  Here is how All Clear will be calculated.

• All Clear
  • Three or more of the following are true:
    • Average new cases per day is less than 100 (This is approximately the cut-off between CDC’s “substantial” and “moderate” levels of transmission)
    • Hospitalizations are under 50
    • Percent positivity is under 2%
    • Cases have not risen by more than 50% in the previous 10 days

Annie McCormick of ABC 6 pointed out that the metrics that represent All Clear for hospitalizations has only occurred for one day, July 15th of last summer and that case positivity rates below 2% were only sustained previously between June 8th and July 13th, 2021.

Is Dr. Bettigole and the PDPH holding the city hostage.  As vaccination rates flat line, 400,000 Philadelphian’s have drew the line at one shot, they City will work more angles to induce vaccine compliance.  They will continue to use masking to pressure this compliance, particularly with our children enrolled in school and for those 400,000 they have dangled $100.00 if they come in and get #2 within the next 6 weeks.

The real question that should be asked is what prize awaits Dr. Bettigole and Mayor Kenney when they finally hit their magic quota.