Philly’s indoor mask mandate likely to return next week, as city COVID-19 cases creep upward

Masks may soon again be needed in public indoor spaces next week, according to a city official.

Philadelphia is poised to reinstate its indoor mask mandate next week as COVID-19 cases climb again.

An Inquirer analysis showed the most current COVID case counts and the percent increase of cases both meet the city’s benchmarks that would trigger the return of the mask mandate for public indoor spaces. The Philadelphia Department of Public Health agreed with the analysis.

“What we see and know is cases are rising,” said James Garrow, a spokesperson for the department. “People should start taking precautions now.”

The Inquirer analysis isn’t predictive, and it is possible that key metrics triggering the return of the mask mandate could decrease by Monday. It’s “certainly possible,” Garrow said, but the city has not yet reached the peak of the case increase that appears to be building now. The city will review Monday’s hospitalization numbers and the last seven days of case counts to decide whether to change policies.

The COVID data are not alarming enough to warrant an immediate change in the city’s mask policies, though, he said. The city has said it would announce changes to its COVID safety requirements on Mondays, and an announcement on whether mask requirements would return would likely come then, Garrow said. If the COVID metrics stay around where they are now, or increase, the health department could choose not to resume mandating masks indoors, he said, but it’s unlikely.

“It’s possible,” Garrow said, “but it certainly is not my personal preference.”

If brought back, the mask mandate would apply to schools in the city as well. Spring break is April 11 to 15, and the city had already stipulated that masks would be required in schools for the following week, from April 18 to 22.

The department created a tiered alert system earlier this year to provide a framework for when precautions would increase or ease, and will likely stick to it, he said. The department may announce the return of the mask mandate Monday but delay implementing it for a few days, Garrow said, to give businesses time to adapt.

Since March, the city has been in response level 1 — “All Clear” — which does not require masks apart from some narrow exceptions, including public transportation.

On Monday, the health department recommended people start masking indoors again, without requiring it.

To jump up to the “Mask Precautions” response level, the city needed to hit two of the following three triggers:

The second metric has already been hit earlier this week; 51 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized as of Tuesday. As of Wednesday, 49 people were in city hospitals with COVID.

With the city nearing the two other thresholds — Philly was averaging 94 new COVID-19 cases per day as of April 1, using a three-day lag that the city recommends — officials encouraged residents to wear masks in indoor public spaces.

According to an Inquirer analysis Wednesday, using the same three-day lag, the average number of new COVID-19 cases per day was 110 as of April 3. And the 10-day increase in the average number of new cases was 54%.

Hospitalizations dropped to 49 on Wednesday, according to state data, just short of hitting a third metric.

The city had initially included a fourth metric, the percent of COVID tests with positive results, but concerns about the reliability of testing led the city to drop that benchmark. Because so many people are taking COVID tests at home, and because those taking tests at sites like hospitals and clinics are likely to lead to inflated positivity rates, testing has become a less valuable tool for measuring COVID’s spread.

The city has four COVID-19 response levels: “All Clear,” “Mask Precautions,” “Caution,” and “Extreme Caution.”

Since early March, the city has been in the “All Clear” category, under which there are no vaccine or testing requirements for places that serve food or drinks, and there are no mask requirements in most public places.

The second risk level — “Mask Precautions” — would put the indoor mask mandate back into effect. “Caution,” the third level, adds a requirement for places that serve food or drink to require a vaccine card or negative COVID-19 test from patrons; “Extreme Caution” makes a vaccine card or exemption a requirement.

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Below is the latest report on Philadelphia County from the CDC